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The dendrogeomorphic spatio-temporal reconstruction of flow-like landslides activity in one of the most susceptible region of Central Europe (the Vsetínské vrchy Mts.)
Dendrochronologia ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-03 , DOI: 10.1016/j.dendro.2021.125830
Karel Šilhán

Flow-like landslides are a dangerous landslide type. They often express gradual movement or seeming dormancy, but occasional reactivation can, in extreme cases, result in catastrophic events. To predict their future behaviour, knowledge of past spatio-temporal development and relationships with hydrometeorological triggers is crucial. Moreover, regional data are more robust than case studies. Dendrogeomorphic (tree-ring-based) methods are a very precise approach for reconstructing past landslide behaviour. Nevertheless, regional reconstructions are very rare, which is probably due to their time-consuming procedures. This paper presents the results of a regional tree-ring-based reconstruction of the spatio-temporal development of flow-like landslides in a selected region in the Outer Western Carpathians. Six selected landslides were studied via analysis of 614 increment cores that came from 307 disturbed trees. The reconstruction provided data for approximately 70 individual landslide reactivation phases that were distributed in 44 event years. Events with regional extension (at least half of the studied landslides were active) were detected in six years (1940, 1941, 1953, 1961, 1985, and 1997). Periods of increased (1950s, 1990s) as well as decreased (1940s, 1970s, 2010s) landslide activity were reconstructed. The use of tree-ring data enabled the construction of landslide probability maps. Based on this analysis, all studied landslides exhibit extremely high probabilities of reactivation during a temporal horizon of 100 years, but even over shorter periods (5 and 20 years), their probability of reactivation is very high. Finally, analysis of meteorological triggers suggests the positive effect of precipitation in May (and possibly in September) to activate landslides with regional extent. Extreme short-duration (1-day) precipitation events probably do not play a role in landslide triggering. Moreover, gradual increases in precipitation totals during periods of at least one-half year preceding the event years were detected.



中文翻译:

在中欧最易受影响的地区之一(Vsetínskévrchy Mts。)中,类似流动的滑坡活动的树状地貌时空重建

似水流的滑坡是危险的滑坡类型。它们通常表现出渐进运动或看起来处于休眠状态,但是在极端情况下,偶尔的重新激活可能会导致灾难性事件。为了预测它们的未来行为,了解过去的时空发展及其与水文气象触发因素之间的关系至关重要。此外,区域数据比案例研究更可靠。树状变形(基于树环)方法是用于重建过去滑坡行为的一种非常精确的方法。然而,区域重建非常罕见,这可能是由于其耗时的过程。本文介绍了在西部喀尔巴阡山脉的选定区域中以树状环为基础的流状滑坡的时空发展重建结果。通过分析来自307棵受干扰树木的614个增量岩心,对六个选定的滑坡进行了研究。重建提供了大约40个事件年中分布的大约70个单独的滑坡复活阶段的数据。在六年(1940年,1941年,1953年,1961年,1985年和1997年)发现了具有区域扩展的事件(至少一半的滑坡处于活动状态)。重建了增加时期(1950年代,1990年代)和减少时期(1940年代,1970年代,2010年代)的滑坡活动。使用树木年轮数据可以构建滑坡概率图。基于此分析,所有研究过的滑坡在100年的时间范围内都具有极高的再活化机率,但即使在较短的时期(5年和20年)内,其再活化的机率也非常高。最后,气象触发因素的分析表明,5月(可能是9月)降水的积极作用是在一定范围内激活滑坡。极短的持续时间(1天)降水事件可能不会触发滑坡。此外,在事件年份之前至少半年的时间内,总降水量逐渐增加。

更新日期:2021-04-06
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