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Can Google Trends improve the marble demand model: A case study of USA's marble demand from Turkey
Resources Policy Pub Date : 2021-04-02 , DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102073
Mikail Başyiğit

The United States is the second largest mineral importer from Turkey and marble is the most imported mineral commodity. Therefore, understanding the demand function of marble is an important subject for countries such as Turkey. Marble's end-use by individuals and households distinguishes it from other mineral commodities. Like other end-use products, trends and popularity are important factors in determining the demand for marble. The United States' preference for single-family homes, and the customization of these homes by households, increases the importance of the marble. Demand studies in the field of mineral commodities have thus far only focused on demand factors such as GDP per capita. However, they have overlooked the effect of the “trends”. To determine the effect of trends on marble demand, a base model was developed using parity, GDP per capita, and price. The base model was statistically significant and had a relatively high explanatory power (R2 = 0.85). A second model was developed to include the trends variable, obtained from Google Trends. The addition of trends improved the analysis indicators of the base model (R2 = 0.90). This study aims to put forth the effect of “trends” on the marble demand. The presented findings of this paper add to our previously limited understanding of trends and popularity on mineral commodities.



中文翻译:

Google趋势可以改善大理石需求模型吗:以美国对土耳其的大理石需求为例

美国是土耳其的第二大矿物进口国,大理石是进口最多的矿物商品。因此,了解大理石的需求功能是土耳其等国家的重要课题。个人和家庭使用大理石的最终用途将其与其他矿产商品区分开来。像其他最终用途产品一样,趋势和受欢迎程度也是决定大理石需求的重要因素。美国偏爱单户住宅,以及家庭对这些房屋的定制,这增加了大理石的重要性。迄今为止,矿产商品领域的需求研究仅集中在人均GDP等需求因素上。但是,他们忽略了“趋势”的影响。为了确定趋势对大理石需求的影响,使用平价,人均GDP和价格开发了基本模型。基本模型具有统计意义,并具有相对较高的解释力(R2  = 0.85)。开发了第二个模型以包含从Google趋势获取的趋势变量。趋势的添加改善了基本模型的分析指标(R 2  = 0.90)。这项研究旨在提出“趋势”对大理石需求的影响。本文提出的发现增加了我们对矿物商品趋势和受欢迎程度的先前有限的了解。

更新日期:2021-04-04
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