Between 2015 and 2018, the Western Cape Province of South Africa experienced a multi-year severe drought, which negatively impacted major economic sectors. The province serves as an important producer of wheat in South Africa among other agricultural commodities. This study aims to analyze the 2015-2018 drought and its impacts on wheat production in the winter rainfall region of the Western Cape, South Africa. The central focus is to place the drought in both a historical and future context while emphasising the differences between the two core wheat growing regions. We present an analysis of the drought, as well as climate trends computed from weather data sets (1988–2018) from six weather stations across the two core wheat-growing. We first present a meteorological drought analysis of mean annual and seasonal rainfall and temperatures, subsequently providing an agricultural lens by computing Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) accumulated over 12- and 36-month timescales, self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI), changes to the start and end of the rainfall season, and their effects on wheat yields. Trend analysis was conducted to determine if drought observations form part of the longer-term trends in the region. Finally, we show how the drought varied spatially across the two regions. Results show that between 1988 and 2018, the wheat growing areas of the Western Cape experienced persistent drought with high spatial-temporal variability. The 2015-2018 drought, however, was the most severe experienced in the 30-year study period at five of the six stations. These results are consistent with conditions that can be expected under future climate change. Moreover, results can be useful for the development of early warning systems since they place the drought in the context of past drought conditions.

在2015年至2018年之间，南非的西开普省经历了多年的严重干旱，这对主要经济部门造成了负面影响。该省是南非其他重要农产品中的重要小麦生产国。本研究旨在分析南非西开普省冬季降雨地区2015-2018年的干旱及其对小麦生产的影响。重点是将干旱置于历史和未来的背景下，同时强调两个核心小麦产区之间的差异。我们提供了对干旱的分析，以及根据两个小麦核心种植区中六个气象站的气象数据集（1988-2018年）计算出的气候趋势。首先，我们对平均每年和每个季节的降雨量和温度进行气象干旱分析，随后通过计算在12个月和36个月时间范围内累积的标准降水和蒸散指数（SPEI），自校准的Palmer干旱严重度指数（sc-PDSI），降雨季节开始和结束的变化以及它们对小麦产量的影响。进行了趋势分析，以确定干旱观测是否构成该地区长期趋势的一部分。最后，我们展示了两个地区的干旱在空间上如何变化。结果表明，在1988年至2018年之间，西开普省的小麦种植区经历了持续干旱，且时空变化很大。然而，2015年至2018年的干旱是六个站点中五个站点在30年研究期内经历的最严重的干旱。这些结果与未来气候变化下可以预期的条件是一致的。此外，结果对于预警系统的开发可能是有用的，因为它们将干旱置于过去的干旱条件下。