Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation are key negative emission technologies suggested in many studies under 2 °C or 1.5 °C scenarios. However, these large-scale land-based approaches have raised concerns about their economic impacts, particularly their impact on food prices, as well as their environmental impacts. Here we focus on quantifying the potential scale of BECCS and its impact on the economy, taking into account technology and economic considerations, but excluding sustainability and political aspects. To do so, we represent all major components of BECCS technology in the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model. We find that BECCS could make a substantial contribution to emissions reductions in the second half of the century under 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization goals, with its deployment driven by revenues from carbon dioxide permits. Results show that global economic costs and the carbon prices needed to hit the stabilization targets are substantially lower with the technology available, and BECCS acts as a true backstop technology at carbon prices around $240 per tonne of carbon dioxide. If driven by economics alone, BECCS deployment increases the use of productive land for bioenergy production, causing substantial land use changes. However, the projected impact on commodity prices is quite limited at the global scale, with global commodity price indices increasing by less than 5% on average. The effect is larger at the regional scale (up to 15% in selected regions), though significantly lower than previous estimates. While BECCS deployment is likely to be constrained for environmental and/or political reasons, this study shows that the large-scale deployment of BECCS is not detrimental to agricultural commodity prices and could reduce the costs of meeting stabilization targets. Still, it is crucial that policies consider carbon dioxide removal as a complement to drastic carbon dioxide emissions reductions, while establishing a credible accounting system and sustainable limits on BECCS.

在2°C或1.5°C情景下，许多研究建议采用带有碳捕获和存储（BECCS）和绿化的生物能源作为关键的负排放技术。但是，这些大规模的陆基方法引起了人们对其经济影响，尤其是其对粮食价格的影响以及对环境的影响的担忧。在这里，我们将重点放在量化BECCS的潜在规模及其对经济的影响上，同时考虑到技术和经济因素，但不包括可持续性和政治方面。为此，我们在MIT经济预测和政策分析模型中代表了BECCS技术的所有主要组成部分。我们发现，在1.5和2°C的气候稳定目标下，BECCS可以为本世纪下半叶的减排做出巨大贡献，其部署受到二氧化碳许可证收入的驱动。结果表明，利用现有技术，全球经济成本和达到稳定目标所需的碳价格都大大降低，而BECCS是真正的支持技术，碳价格约为每吨二氧化碳240美元。如果仅靠经济因素推动，BECCS的部署将增加生产性土地用于生物能源生产的使用，从而导致土地用途发生重大变化。但是，在全球范围内，预计对商品价格的影响非常有限，全球商品价格指数平均增长不到5％。在区域范围内影响更大（在某些区域高达15％），尽管远低于先前的估计。虽然BECCS的部署可能由于环境和/或政治原因而受到限制，但这项研究表明，BECCS的大规模部署不会损害农产品价格，并且可以降低实现稳定目标的成本。但是，至关重要的是，政策必须考虑将二氧化碳清除作为二氧化碳减排的补充，同时建立可靠的会计制度和对BECCS的可持续限制。