Context

Modifications to land surface thermal regime by climate change and land cover/land-use change may influence ecosystem structure and function in arid landscapes, but relevant studies are scarce. Large changes in the land surface thermal regime can disturb the hydro-ecological integrity of these landscapes. Thus, it is important to assess landscape change and ecological risk to promote arid landscape sustainability.

Objectives

This study predicted the landscape change and quantified the Bayanbulak ecological risk evolution through a susceptibility-hazard assessment system.

Methods

CA–Markov model was used to simulate the landscape change, while ERA model that builds the susceptibility-hazard indices rapport was applied to evaluate the Bayanbulak wetland ecological risk using 30 m remotely sensed data.

Results

Findings unveiled that modifications in water, meadow, and marshes are predicted to decline at a rate of 39.3, 6.32, 23.98% in 2069 respectively. As wetland hazard, the LST average increased from 20 to 22 °C with a maximum value of 35.2 °C from 1994 to 2019. Likewise, wetland susceptibility mean value increased from 1.10 to 1.20, a growth rate of 9.09%. Though the decline in high-risk zones, moderate risk zones drastically augmented at the extent of 70.5% while low risk and no risk zones declined with a reduction rate of 18.9 and 95.8% respectively. Overall observations exhibited that Bayanbulak ecological risk is slightly evolving.

Conclusion

Bayanbulak is a pool of ecosystem services. By highlighting its ecological risk evolution, we call upon the focus on factors driving LST increment and adopt climatic adaptation measures of aqua-terrestrial ecosystems for Bayanbulak management.

中文翻译：

---

西北巴彦布拉克湿地湿地生态风险评估的地理空间地表热情景及其景观动力学模拟

语境

气候变化和土地覆盖/土地利用变化对地表热力状态的改变可能会影响干旱景观中的生态系统结构和功能，但相关研究很少。地表热力状况的巨大变化可能会扰乱这些景观的水生态完整性。因此，评估景观变化和生态风险以促进干旱景观的可持续性很重要。

目标

这项研究通过敏感性-危害评估系统预测了景观变化并量化了Bayanbulak生态风险的演变。

方法

CA-Markov模型用于模拟景观变化，而建立易感性-危险指数融洽关系的ERA模型则用于使用30 m遥感数据评估Bayanbulak湿地生态风险。

结果

研究结果表明，到2069年，水，草地和沼泽地的变化预计将分别以39.3％，6.32％和23.98％的速度下降。作为湿地灾害，从1994年到2019年，LST的平均值从20°C上升到22°C，最大值为35.2°C。同样，湿地磁化率的平均值从1.10增加到1.20，增长率为9.09％。尽管高风险区的下降，中度风险区以70.5％的幅度急剧增加，而低风险区和无风险区的下降率分别为18.9和95.8％。总体观察结果表明，巴彦布鲁克（Bayanbulak）的生态风险正在不断变化。

结论

巴彦巴拉克（Bayanbulak）是生态系统服务的集合。通过突出其生态风险的演变，我们呼吁关注驱动LST增加的因素，并对Bayanbulak管理采取水陆生态系统的气候适应措施。