ABSTRACT

The population of Istanbul increased from three to fifteen million from 1970 to 2018. The city, which has no perennial fresh water resources within its metropolitan boundaries, has long imported water from other basins. In this study, the performance of a reservoir system fed by surface runoff and inter-basin water transfer is investigated and applied. Simulations are run for water demand estimates and with Gamma-distributed realizations of monthly precipitation, based on 105-year temperature and precipitation data. The research shows that after 2060, existing and transferred water alone will not be sufficient to meet demand and it is expected that the megacity Istanbul will be on a path towards water crisis after this date, if not before. It is concluded that it is vital to adopt a more diversified water supply and demand management portfolio with extensive Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) measures for “Water Sensitive Cities”. Strategies for reliable system operation that take foreseeable environmental problems into account are proposed.

摘要

从 1970 年到 2018 年，伊斯坦布尔的人口从 3 人增加到 2018 年。这座城市在其大都市范围内没有常年淡水资源，长期以来一直从其他流域进口水。在这项研究中，研究并应用了由地表径流和流域间调水补给的水库系统的性能。基于 105 年的温度和降水数据，对需水量估计和每月降水的 Gamma 分布实现进行了模拟。研究表明，在 2060 年之后，仅靠现有和转移的水将不足以满足需求，预计伊斯坦布尔大城市将在此日期之后（如果不是更早）走向水资源危机。得出的结论是，为“水敏感城市”采用更多样化的供水和需求管理组合以及广泛的综合水资源管理 (IWRM) 措施至关重要。提出了将可预见的环境问题考虑在内的可靠系统操作的策略。