Few studies have focused on the combined impact of climate change, CO₂, and land-use cover change (LUCC), especially the evaluation of the impact of LUCC on net primary productivity (NPP) in the future. In this study, we simulated the overall NPP change trend from 2010 to 2100 and its response to climatic factors, CO₂ concentration, and LUCC conditions under three typical emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). (1) Under the predicted global pattern, NPP showed an increasing trend, with the most prominent variation at the end of the century. The increasing trend is mainly caused by the positive effect of CO₂ on NPP. However, the increasing trend of LUCC has only a small positive effect. (2) Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, from 2090 to 2100, CO₂ has the most significant positive impact on tropical areas, reaching 8.328 Pg C Yr⁻¹. Under the same conditions, climate change has the greatest positive impact on the northern high latitudes (1.175 Pg C Yr⁻¹), but it has the greatest negative impact on tropical areas, reaching −4.842 Pg C Yr⁻¹. (3) The average contribution rate of LUCC to NPP was 6.14%. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, LUCC made the largest positive contribution on NPP (0.542 Pg C Yr⁻¹) globally from 2010 to 2020.

中文翻译：

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使用过程模型评估气候变化，二氧化碳和土地利用覆盖变化对全球净初级生产力的未来影响

很少有研究关注气候变化，CO ₂和土地利用覆盖率变化（LUCC）的综合影响，尤其是对LUCC对未来净初级生产力（NPP）的影响的评估。在本研究中，我们模拟了三种典型排放情景（代表性浓度途径RCP2.6，RCP4.5和RCP8.5）在2010年至2100年期间NPP的总体变化趋势及其对气候因子，CO ₂浓度和LUCC条件的响应。 ）。（1）在预测的全球格局下，NPP呈上升趋势，本世纪末变化最为明显。增长趋势主要是由CO ₂的积极作用引起的在NPP上。但是，LUCC的增加趋势只有很小的积极作用。（2）在RCP 8.5情景下，从2090年到2100年，CO ₂对热带地区的影响最为显着，达到8.328 Pg C Yr ^-1。在相同条件下，气候变化对北部高纬度地区（1.175 Pg C Yr ^-1）的影响最大，而对热带地区的负面影响最大，达到-4.842 Pg C Yr ^-1。（3）LUCC对核电厂的平均贡献率为6.14％。在RCP8.5情景下，从2010年到2020年，LUCC对NPP的贡献最大（0.542 Pg C Yr ^-1）。