Introduction: With the growing older adult population due to the aging baby-boom cohort, there was concern that increases in fatal motor-vehicle crashes would follow. Yet, previous analyses showed this to be untrue. The purpose of this study was to examine current trends to determine if previous declines have persisted or risen with the recent increase in fatalities nationwide. Methods: Trends among drivers ages 70 and older were compared with drivers 35–54 for U.S. passenger vehicle fatal crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers from 1997 to 2018, fatal and all police-reported crash involvements per vehicle miles traveled using the 1995, 2001, 2009, and 2017 National Household Travel Surveys, and driver deaths per 1,000 crashes. Results: Since the mid-1990s, fatal crashes per licensed driver trended downward, with greater declines for drivers ages 70 and older than for middle-aged drivers (43% vs. 21%). Fatal crash rates per 100,000 licensed drivers and police-reported crash rates per mile traveled for drivers ages 70–79 are now less than those for drivers ages 35–54, but their fatal crash rates per mile traveled and risk of dying in a crash remain higher as they drive fewer miles. As the economy improved over the past decade, fatal crash rates increased substantially for middle-aged drivers but decreased or remained stable among older driver age groups. Conclusions: Fatal crash involvements for adults ages 70 and older has recently increased, but they remain down from their 1997 peak, even as the number of licensed older drivers and the miles they drive have increased. Health improvements likely contributed to long-term reductions in fatal crash rates. As older drivers adopt vehicles with improved crashworthiness and safety features, crash survivability will improve. Practical Application: Older adults should feel confident that their independent mobility needs pose less risk than previously expected.

简介：随着婴儿潮时期老龄化导致老年人口不断增加，人们担心致命的机动车事故会随之增加。然而，之前的分析表明这是不真实的。这项研究的目的是检查当前的趋势，以确定随着最近全国死亡人数的增加，之前的下降是持续存在还是上升。方法：将1997 年至 2018 年美国乘用车每 100,000 名持照驾驶员的死亡事故发生率与 35-54 岁驾驶员的趋势进行比较，使用 1995、2001、 2009 年和 2017 年全国家庭旅行调查，以及每 1,000 起车祸中的驾驶员死亡人数。结果：自 1990 年代中期以来，每名持牌司机的致命车祸呈下降趋势，70 岁及以上司机的下降幅度大于中年司机（43% 对 21%）。70-79 岁驾驶员的每 100,000 名驾照驾驶员的致命事故率和警方报告的每英里行驶事故率现在低于 35-54 岁的驾驶员，但他们每英里行驶的致命事故率和死于事故的风险仍然存在他们驾驶的里程数越少，越高。随着过去十年经济的改善，中年司机的致命车祸率大幅上升，但老年司机年龄组的致命车祸率下降或保持稳定。结论：70 岁及以上成年人的致命车祸事故最近有所增加，但仍低于 1997 年的峰值，即使有执照的老年司机数量和驾驶里程有所增加。健康状况的改善可能有助于长期降低致命事故率。随着年龄较大的驾驶员采用具有改进的耐撞性和安全功能的车辆，碰撞生存能力将会提高。实际应用：老年人应该确信他们的独立移动需求带来的风险比以前预期的要小。