Problems teaching probability in Tonga (in the South Pacific) led to the question on how language and culture affect the understanding of probability and uncertainty. The research uses a discursive approach to identify the endorsed narratives which underlie Tongans’ reasoning in situations of uncertainty. I aim to justify the claim that the Tongan language and the Tongan way of life interact to make the concept of uncertainty very different from that found in western countries and the concept of probability almost redundant in Tongan day-to-day discourse. There are very few cross-cultural studies concerning the ways in which probability and uncertainty are understood in different cultural contexts, and this article aims to make a small contribution to filling this gap.

汤加（南太平洋）的概率教学问题导致了这样一个问题，即语言和文化如何影响对概率和不确定性的理解。该研究采用了一种话语方法来确定经认可的叙述，这些叙述是汤加人在不确定情况下进行推理的基础。我旨在证明这种说法，即汤加语言和汤加生活方式相互影响，使不确定性概念与西方国家大为不同，而概率概念几乎在汤加的日常话语中是多余的。关于在不同文化背景下理解概率和不确定性的方式的跨文化研究很少，本文旨在为弥补这一差距做出一点贡献。