This paper investigates whether the takeover market has been affected by heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, following President Trump’s Election, both in the US and globally. We have based our analysis on a four-year period around the 2016 US elections, and as such we have observed an increase in M&A deals and associated valuations, after the election; this was especially true for cross-border deals acquiring U.S. targets, consistent with a tariff-jumping hypothesis. The high target valuations are also the product of the implementation of a lower corporate tax rate, which reveals positive externalities for U.S. targets, stemming from the protectionist and lower corporate tax initiatives of the regime.

本文调查了特朗普总统大选后在美国和全球范围内收购市场是否受到宏观经济不确定性加剧的影响。我们的分析基于2016年美国大选前后的四年时间，因此，我们发现大选后并购交易和相关估值有所增加；对于跨境交易获得美国目标的情况尤其如此，这与关税跳跃假说是一致的。高目标估值也是实施较低公司税率的产物，这表明美国目标的积极外部性，源于该制度的贸易保护主义和较低公司税举措。