Was the US economy overheating prior to 1929 and did financial factors play a similar part across the century? Did the housing boom and bust of mid 1920s play the same role as in the build up and subsequent crisis of 2007? We tackle these questions using a Bayesian macroeconometric trend-gap decomposition of U.S. output. Our analysis is presented in the tradition of comparative historical studies of the 1929 and 2007 crises. Results confirm the essential role of financial factors as conditioning variables estimating output gaps. Accounting for credit dynamics, U.S. potential output has been steadily expanding at roughly 2% since the beginning of 1980. The elasticity of output gaps with respect to credit gaps exhibits substantial time-variation.

1929年之前，美国经济是否过热？在整个世纪中，金融因素是否发挥了类似的作用？1920年代中期的房地产繁荣和萧条是否起到了与2007年随后的危机一样的作用？我们使用贝叶斯宏观经济计量学对美国产出的趋势差距分解来解决这些问题。我们的分析是在1929年和2007年危机的比较历史研究的传统中进行的。结果证实了财务因素作为估计产出缺口的条件变量的重要作用。考虑到信贷动态，自1980年初以来，美国的潜在产出一直稳定增长约2％。相对于信贷缺口的产出缺口弹性表现出很大的时变性。