Agricultural land-use change is a dynamic process that varies as a function of social, economic and environmental factors spanning from the local to the global scale. The cumulative regional impacts of these factors on land use adoption decisions by farmers are neither well accounted for nor reflected in agricultural land use planning. We present an innovative spatially explicit agent-based modelling approach (Crop GIS-ABM) that accounts for factors involved in farmer decision making on new irrigation adoption to enable land-use predictions and exploration. The model was designed using a participatory approach, capturing stakeholder insights in a conceptual model of farmer decisions. We demonstrate a case study of the factors influencing the uptake of new irrigation infrastructure and land use in Tasmania, Australia. The model demonstrates how irrigated land-use expansion promotes the diffusion of alternative crops in the region, as well as how coupled social, biophysical and environmental conditions play an important role in crop selection. Our study shows that agricultural land use reflected the evolution of multiple simultaneous interacting biophysical and socio-economic drivers, including soil and climate type, crop and commodity prices, and the accumulated effects of interactive decisions of farmers.

中文翻译：

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农业土地利用规划的经济，环境和社会综合方法

农业土地利用的变化是一个动态过程，其变化过程涉及从地方到全球范围的社会，经济和环境因素。这些因素对农民土地使用决定的累积区域影响既没有得到很好的解释，也没有反映在农业土地利用规划中。我们提出了一种创新的基于空间显式基于主体的建模方法（Crop GIS-ABM），该方法考虑了农民在采用新灌溉方式时做出决策的因素，从而能够进行土地利用预测和勘探。该模型是采用参与性方法设计的，可以在农民决策的概念模型中收集利益相关者的见解。我们对影响澳大利亚塔斯马尼亚州新的灌溉基础设施和土地使用的因素进行了案例研究。该模型说明了灌溉土地利用的扩展如何促进该地区替代作物的扩散，以及社会，生物物理和环境条件的耦合如何在作物选择中发挥重要作用。我们的研究表明，农业土地利用反映了多种同时相互作用的生物物理和社会经济驱动因素的演变，包括土壤和气候类型，作物和商品价格以及农民互动决策的累积影响。