An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of December 14, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 73 million confirmed infections and above 1.5 million reported deaths worldwide. During this period of an epidemic when human-to-human transmission is established and reported cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are rising worldwide, investigation of control strategies and forecasting are necessary for health care planning. In this study, we propose and analyze a compartmental epidemic model of COVID-19 to predict and control the outbreak. The basic reproduction number and the control reproduction number are calculated analytically. A detailed stability analysis of the model is performed to observe the dynamics of the system. We calibrated the proposed model to fit daily data from the United Kingdom (UK) where the situation is still alarming. Our findings suggest that independent self-sustaining human-to-human spread ($R_0>1,$ $R_c>1$) is already present. Short-term predictions show that the decreasing trend of new COVID-19 cases is well captured by the model. Further, we found that effective management of quarantined individuals is more effective than management of isolated individuals to reduce the disease burden. Thus, if limited resources are available, then investing on the quarantined individuals will be more fruitful in terms of reduction of cases.

从2019年12月起，新型冠状病毒引起的呼吸道疾病的暴发仍在继续。截至2020年12月14日，它已引起流行病暴发，全球确诊感染人数超过7300万，报告死亡人数超过150万。在此流行期间，人与人之间的传播已经建立，并且 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 的报告病例在全球范围内不断增加，因此有必要对控制策略和预测进行调查以制定医疗保健计划。在这项研究中，我们提出并分析了 COVID-19 的隔室流行模型，以预测和控制疫情。基本再生数和控制再生数是通过解析计算的。对模型进行详细的稳定性分析以观察系统的动力学。我们校准了提议的模型，以适应英国 (UK) 的每日数据，那里的情况仍然令人担忧。我们的研究结果表明，独立的自我维持的人与人之间的传播（${\mathrm{电阻}}_0>1,$ ${\mathrm{电阻}}_C>1$) 已经存在。短期预测表明，该模型很好地捕捉了新的 COVID-19 病例的下降趋势。此外，我们发现对隔离个体的有效管理比对隔离个体的管理更有效，可以减轻疾病负担。因此，如果可用资源有限，那么在减少病例方面，投资于被隔离的个人将更富有成效。