The subnivium is the seasonal microhabitat at the snow–ground interface and serves as a refuge for a diversity of species. Increasingly warmer winters are disrupting the continuity of snow cover, and likely the stability of the subnivium. To examine how the extent and duration of this sensitive and widespread below-snow habitat will shift under warming winters, we deployed fully automated winter greenhouses across latitudinal and land-cover gradients to monitor subnivium conditions under different climate-change scenarios and predicted subnivium occurrence across the Great Lakes region. In a +3°C warming scenario, we found little change in subnivium extent or duration, whereas a +5°C scenario produced widespread and marked reductions in both extent (loss of 200,000 km², a 45% decline) and duration (>1 month decline). Although the subnivium appears resilient to moderate future warming, we predict abrupt and extensive changes in response to increased winter warming, which will have sweeping ecological and environmental consequences in high-latitude ecosystems.

中文翻译：

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隐蔽而广阔的微生境的衰落：亚生境

Subnivium 是雪地界面处的季节性微生境，是多种物种的避难所。越来越暖的冬天正在破坏积雪的连续性，并可能破坏亚温层的稳定性。为了研究这个敏感而广泛的雪下栖息地的范围和持续时间将如何在变暖的冬季发生变化，我们在纬度和土地覆盖梯度上部署了全自动冬季温室，以监测不同气候变化情景下的亚温层条件，并预测跨亚温层的发生。五大湖地区。在 +3°C 变暖情景中，我们发现亚天域范围或持续时间几乎没有变化，而 +5°C 情景在这两个范围内都产生了广泛且显着的减少（损失 200,000 km ²，下降 45%）和持续时间（下降 > 1 个月）。尽管亚冰层似乎对未来温和的变暖具有弹性，但我们预测，随着冬季变暖的加剧，会发生突然而广泛的变化，这将对高纬度生态系统产生广泛的生态和环境后果。