The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.

海底井口连接器是海底圣诞树和海底井口之间的重要连接组件，用于防止海底生产系统中的石油和天然气泄漏。由于环境力和其他支撑力引起的周期性载荷，海底井口连接器容易发生故障，这可能导致海底树木或井口完整性丧失，甚至发生灾难性事故。利用蒙特卡洛仿真方法，提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络的可靠性分析方法，旨在评估海底井口连接器在使用寿命期间的失效概率。以海底井口连接器的驱动环组件为例，说明所提出模型的合理性。通过数值和状态变量之间的转换来处理生成数据。基于应力-强度干涉理论，在考虑材料强度的时效和影响最大的因素的基础上，提出的模型获得了96.26％的主动环结构可靠性。同时，提出了相应的控制措施，有效降低了海底井口连接器使用寿命期间的故障风险。