The international transmission of real business cycles during financial crises differs dramatically depending on the type of debt market integration. Using a bilateral country-pair dataset of 57 countries covering the period 2001–2013, we find robust empirical evidence that short-term debt integration drove business cycle synchronization during the global financial crisis (GFC) and European sovereign debt crisis. However, we also find that long-term debt integration cushioned the international transmission of business cycles during the crises. Our findings distinguish two transmission channels of financial shocks: the balance sheet effect through the integrated short-term debt market and risk-sharing through long-term debt market integration.

金融危机期间实际商业周期的国际传播因债务市场整合的类型而异。使用涵盖2001年至2013年期间57个国家的双边国家对数据集，我们发现有力的经验证据表明，短期债务整合在全球金融危机（GFC）和欧洲主权债务危机期间推动了商业周期的同步。但是，我们还发现，长期债务整合缓解了危机期间国际商业周期的传导。我们的发现区分了金融冲击的两种传导渠道：通过整合短期债务市场产生的资产负债表效应和通过长期债务市场整合产生的风险分担。