Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that ACC has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~26–34%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.

农业研究促进了生产力增长，但人为气候变化 (ACC) 对这种增长的历史影响尚未量化。我们开发了一个强大的天气对全球农业全要素生产率 (TFP) 影响的计量经济学模型，并将该模型与反事实气候情景相结合，以评估过去气候趋势对 TFP 的影响。我们的基线模型表明，自 1961 年以来，ACC 已将全球农业 TFP 降低了约 21%，这一放缓相当于失去了过去 7 年的生产力增长。在非洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比等较温暖的地区，这种影响要严重得多（减少约 26-34%）。我们还发现，全球农业越来越容易受到持续气候变化的影响。