Which policies can increase the resilience of the financial system to climate risks? Recent evidence on the significant impacts of climate change and natural disasters on firms, banks and other financial institutions call for a prompt policy response. In this paper, we employ a macro-financial agent-based model to study the interaction between climate change, credit and economic dynamics and test a mix of policy interventions. We first show that financial constraints exacerbate the impact of climate shocks on the economy while, at the same time, climate damages to firms make the banking sector more prone to crises. We find that credit provision can both increase firms’ productivity and their financial fragility, with such a trade-off being exacerbated by the effects of climate change. We then test a set of “green” finance policies addressing these risks, while fostering climate change mitigation: i) green Basel-type capital requirements, ii) green public guarantees to credit, and iii) carbon-risk adjustment in credit ratings. All the policies reduce carbon emissions and the resulting climate impacts, though moderately. However, their effects on financial and real dynamics is not straightforwardly positive. Some combinations of policies fuel credit booms, exacerbating financial instability and increasing public debt. We show that the combination of the three policies leads to a virtuous cycle of (mild) emission reductions, stable financial sector and high economic growth. Additional tools would be needed to fully adapt to climate change. Hence, our results point to the need to complement financial policies cooling down climate-related risks with mitigation policies curbing emissions from real economic activities.

哪些政策可以提高金融体系对气候风险的抵御能力？关于气候变化和自然灾害对公司，银行和其他金融机构的重大影响的最新证据要求采取迅速的政策对策。在本文中，我们采用基于宏观金融主体的模型来研究气候变化，信贷与经济动态之间的相互作用，并测试一系列政策干预措施。我们首先表明，金融约束加剧了气候冲击对经济的影响，与此同时，气候对公司的破坏使银行业更容易发生危机。我们发现，信贷提供既可以提高公司的生产率，又可以提高其财务脆弱性，而这种权衡会因气候变化的影响而加剧。绿色巴塞尔型资本要求，ii）绿色公共信贷担保，iii）碳风险调整信用等级。所有政策均适度降低了碳排放量以及由此对气候的影响。但是，它们对财务和实际动态的影响并非直接积极的。政策的某些组合助长了信贷的繁荣，加剧了金融动荡，并增加了公共债务。我们表明，三项政策的结合导致了（温和）减排，金融部门稳定和经济高速增长的良性循环。需要其他工具来完全适应气候变化。因此，我们的结果表明，有必要通过遏制实际经济活动排放的缓解政策来补充金融政策，以降低与气候相关的风险。