This study examines whether the responsiveness of U.S. residential natural gas demand to price and income movements has changed in recent times. Using annual data from 1970 to 2016, we apply a conventional aggregate demand model to estimate the own price and income elasticity of natural gas consumption by residential users in the U.S. We estimate this as a static model across alternative sample periods, as well as a stochastic model over the full sample, and reach two main conclusions. First, the own price elasticity of natural gas demand increased sharply in the mid 1980's and has declined steadily since. This finding is consistent with increasing reliance on natural gas by residential consumers and improvements in energy efficiency. Second, the income elasticity of U.S. residential natural gas demand has remained relatively constant and consistently negative. We explain this result by reference to increasing energy efficiency as well as the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The findings have important implications regarding the effectiveness of price and income measures to influence energy consumption and the energy mix.

这项研究调查了美国居民天然气需求对价格和收入变动的反应性最近是否发生了变化。利用1970年至2016年的年度数据，我们采用常规的总需求模型来估算美国居民用户的天然气消费自身价格和收入弹性。对整个样本进行建模，并得出两个主要结论。首先，天然气需求的自身价格弹性在1980年代中期急剧上升，此后稳步下降。这一发现与居民消费者对天然气的依赖增加以及能源效率的提高是一致的。二，美国的收入弹性 居民天然气需求一直保持相对稳定，并且一直为负。我们通过参考提高能源效率以及环境库兹涅茨曲线来解释这一结果。这些发现对于价格和收入指标影响能源消耗和能源结构的有效性具有重要意义。