Public transit (PT) is the backbone of a sustainable transport system. This study aims to investigate commuters’ initial intentions to shift to PT in a car-oriented city without a PT, quantifying the direct economic and environmental impacts. The study considers data from a recent survey conducted in Medina, Saudi Arabia. Analyses are based on a stated-preference (SP) survey in conjunction with spatial analysis approaches. SP results show that 53% of participants are willing to shift to PT, with no spatial autocorrelation existing between the participants’ willingness to use PT and their residential zones. Logistic regression indicates that participants who used PT abroad are more likely to shift whenever PT becomes available in their city. Equally, gender and vehicular occupancy rate determine participants’ intention to shift to PT. The results show that for each 1% of would-be PT commuters, a reduction of 0.79% in CO2 emissions is obtained.

公共交通（PT）是可持续交通运输系统的支柱。这项研究旨在调查通勤者在没有PT的汽车城市中转向PT的初衷，从而量化其直接的经济和环境影响。该研究考虑了最近在沙特阿拉伯麦地那进行的一项调查的数据。分析是基于陈述偏好（SP）调查和空间分析方法进行的。SP结果显示53％的参与者愿意转向PT，并且参与者使用PT的意愿与其居住区之间不存在空间自相关。Logistic回归表明，在国外使用PT的参与者在城市使用PT的可能性更大。同样，性别和车辆占用率决定了参与者转向PT的意愿。