Oil spills in estuarine systems can strongly endanger habitats and water quality. However, the impacts of projected climatic conditions on oil spill transport in estuarine environments have received little attention. To address these key gaps, we analyse here a range of simulations for the Humber Estuary, UK, using coupled hydrodynamic and oil spill model. These simulations indicate that, for this well-mixed macro-tidal estuary: (a) the influence of projected sea level rise and river discharge on oil slick impacted area, slick length and overall distance travelled is relatively minor (<10%); (b) magnitude of currents determines differences in dynamics between oil slicks released along the estuary length; and (c) differences in lateral current speed and direction are key determinants of the differences in the dynamics of oil slicks released along the estuary width. The implications of these findings for operational oil spill response in estuaries similar to the Humber Estuary are: (i) the need to be aware of dominant current direction in different segments of the estuary; and (ii) the need take cognisance of the interaction between oil slicks and estuary bank and how it influences overall distance travelled by oil slicks.

中文翻译：

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预计气候条件和不同侧向释放点对潮汐主导河口浮油输送的影响

河口系统的石油泄漏会严重危害栖息地和水质。然而，预计气候条件对河口环境溢油输送的影响却很少受到关注。为了解决这些关键差距，我们使用流体动力学和溢油耦合模型分析了英国亨伯河口的一系列模拟。这些模拟表明，对于这个混合良好的宏观潮汐河口：（a）预计海平面上升和河流流量对浮油影响面积、浮油长度和总行驶距离的影响相对较小（<10％）；(b) 水流的大小决定了沿河口长度释放的浮油之间的动态差异；(c) 侧向水流速度和方向的差异是沿河口宽度释放的浮油动力学差异的关键决定因素。这些发现对于类似于亨伯河口的河口的作业溢油响应的影响是：（i）需要了解河口不同部分的主要水流方向；(ii) 需要认识到浮油与河口岸之间的相互作用以及它如何影响浮油的总移动距离。