Over the past three decades, there has been an increasing focus on the subject of global tourism in Iran’s economy. This article examines the most important economic factors affecting this industry in this country, especially economic policy uncertainty. For this purpose, three models specify the number of tourists entering the country as a dependent variable and Consumer Price Index, Tehran Exchange Price Index, market exchange rate, semi-annual dummy variable, and exports as explanatory variables. To investigate the uncertainty of the government’s economic policies, three variables liquidity fluctuations, tax revenue fluctuations, and government expenditures fluctuations have been added along with the above variables. To obtain the fluctuations, the GARCH function is used then the relations are estimated by the GMM method. The estimation of models using monthly data from March 2011 to August 2018 shows that explanatory variables are significant. The results indicate that economic policy uncertainty has negatively affected the arrival of the tourist. An increase in exchange rate, consumer price index, exports, and stock market price index have a positive effect on the arrival of tourists. Therefore, due to inbound tourism sensitivity to shocks, the growth and survival of tourism depend on economic and political stability.

中文翻译：

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调查伊朗入境旅游的政府经济政策的不确定性

在过去的三十年中，人们越来越关注伊朗经济中的全球旅游业。本文研究了影响该国这个行业的最重要的经济因素，尤其是经济政策的不确定性。为此，三个模型将进入该国的游客数量指定为因变量，将消费者价格指数，德黑兰汇率指数，市场汇率，半年虚拟变量和出口指定为解释变量。为了研究政府经济政策的不确定性，在上述变量的基础上增加了三个变量，即流动性波动，税收收入波动和政府支出波动。为了获得波动，使用GARCH函数，然后通过GMM方法估计该关系。使用2011年3月至2018年8月的月度数据对模型进行的估算表明，解释变量很重要。结果表明，经济政策的不确定性对游客的到来产生了负面影响。汇率，消费物价指数，出口和股市价格指数的上升对游客的到来产生积极影响。因此，由于入境旅游业对冲击的敏感性，旅游业的增长和生存取决于经济和政治稳定。