The effect of climate change on agriculture in the UK is here assessed using a comprehensive series of policy-relevant agro-climate indicators characterising changes to climate resources and hazards affecting productivity and operations. This paper presents projections of these indicators across the UK with gridded observed data and UKCP18 climate projections representing a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The projections can be used to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation policy. There will be substantial changes in the climate resource and hazard across the UK during the twenty-first century if emissions continue to follow a high trajectory, and there will still be some changes if emissions reduce to achieve international climate policy targets. Growing seasons for certain crops will lengthen, crop growth will be accelerated, and both drought and heat risks (for some types of production) will increase. Soils will become drier in autumn, although there will be less change in winter and spring. The longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures provide opportunities for new crops, subject to the effects of increasing challenges to production. Most of the changes are relatively consistent across the UK, although drought risk and heat stress risk increase most rapidly in the south and east. The climate change trend is superimposed onto considerable year to year variability. Although there is strong consensus across climate projections on the direction of change, there is considerable uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of change for a given emissions scenario. For the temperature-based indicators, this reflects uncertainty in climate sensitivity, whilst for the precipitation-based indicators largely reflects uncertainty in projected changes in the weather systems affecting the UK.

本文使用一系列与政策相关的综合农业气候指标，评估了气候变化对英国农业的影响，这些指标表征了气候资源的变化以及影响生产力和运营的危害。本文通过网格观测数据和UKCP18气候预测（代表一系列温室气体排放情景），对英国的这些指标进行了预测。这些预测可用于为减缓气候变化和适应政策提供信息。如果排放继续沿高轨道发展，则在二十一世纪，整个英国的气候资源和危害将发生重大变化，而如果减少排放以实现国际气候政策目标，则仍将有一些变化。某些农作物的生长季节会延长，作物生长将加快，干旱和高温风险（针对某些类型的生产）将增加。尽管冬季和春季的土壤变化较小，但秋季土壤将变得更干燥。受生产挑战日益增加的影响，较长的生长期和较高的温度为新作物提供了机会。尽管在南部和东部，干旱风险和高温胁迫风险增长最快，但整个英国的大多数变化相对一致。气候变化趋势被叠加在每年相当大的可变性上。尽管跨气候变化的预测在变化方向上达成了共识，但对于给定的排放情景，变化率和变化幅度存在很大的不确定性。对于基于温度的指标，