Adaptation strategies to climate change need information about present and future climatic conditions. However, next to scenarios about the future climate, scenarios about future vulnerability are essential, since also changing societal conditions fundamentally determine adaptation needs. At the international and national level, first initiatives for developing vulnerability scenarios and so-called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been undertaken. Most of these scenarios, however, do not provide sufficient information for local scenarios and local climate risk management. There is an urgent need to develop scenarios for vulnerability at the local scale in order to complement climate change scenarios. Heat stress is seen as a key challenge in cities in the context of climate change and further urban growth. Based on the research project ZURES (ZURES 2020 website), the paper presents a new method for human vulnerability scenarios to heat stress at the very local scale for growing medium-sized cities. In contrast to global models that outline future scenarios mostly with a country-level resolution, we show a new method on how to develop spatially specific scenario information for different districts within cities, starting from the planned urban development and expansion. The method provides a new opportunity to explore how different urban development strategies and housing policies influence future human exposure and vulnerability. Opportunities and constraints of the approach are revealed. Finally, we discuss how these scenarios can inform future urban development and risk management strategies and how these could complement more global or national approaches.

适应气候变化的战略需要有关当前和未来气候条件的信息。但是，除了关于未来气候的情景之外，关于未来脆弱性的情景也是必不可少的，因为不断变化的社会条件从根本上决定了适应需求。在国际和国家一级，已经采取了第一个举措来开发脆弱性情景和所谓的共享社会经济途径（SSP）。但是，这些场景中的大多数都没有为本地场景和本地气候风险管理提供足够的信息。迫切需要在地方范围内制定脆弱性情景，以补充气候变化情景。在气候变化和城市进一步增长的背景下，热压力被视为城市中的主要挑战。基于研究项目ZURES（ZURES 2020网站），本文提出了一种新的方法来解决人类易受伤害的情况，从而在正在发展的中型城市的非常局部的规模上产生热应力。与主要以国家/地区级别的分辨率概述未来情景的全球模型相反，我们展示了一种新方法，该方法从计划的城市发展和扩展开始，如何为城市中的不同区域开发空间特定的情景信息。该方法为探索不同的城市发展策略和住房政策如何影响未来的人类暴露和脆弱性提供了新的机会。揭示了该方法的机会和局限性。最后，