Concrete-filled arch ribs of concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) arch bridges experience temperature effects and shrinkage/creep effects, as well as effects based on their interaction, that reduce the calculated stiffness of the arch ribs of the CFST arch bridges, resulting in a reduced bearing capacity. To address this problem, this paper proposes a Gaussian process response surface method based on the concept of dichotomy. When the training sample parameter interval is uncertain, it achieves the fastest retrieval of training samples that meet the requirements, it makes up for the shortcomings of the traditional small sample Gaussian process method. It can accurately predict the equivalent stiffness of the concrete-filled arch ribs of the CFST arch bridge, considering the effects of temperature and time, and grasp the time-varying degradation law of the mechanical performance of the CFST arch bridge arch rib. To verify the correctness and reliability of the proposed method, a refined analysis model of a CFST arch bridge is established using the general finite element software ANSYS, and the optimal creep equation and temperature effect function are selected. Using the improved Gaussian process model, the equivalent calculated stiffness of the arch rib filled with concrete after ten years under the combined action of shrinkage, creep and temperature effects of the concrete-filled steel tube arch bridge is predicted, and the deflection value and stability coefficient are proposed as the evaluation index of the prediction accuracy. The research results show that the proposed method provides a more simplified and high-precision method for the performance degradation analysis of concrete filled steel tube arch bridge arch ribs under the coupling action of complex factors such as shrinkage, creep, and temperature effects.

钢管混凝土（CFST）拱桥的混凝土拱肋经历温度效应，收缩/蠕变效应以及基于它们的相互作用的影响，从而降低了CFST拱桥的拱肋的计算刚度，从而导致降低了承载能力。针对这一问题，本文提出了一种基于二分法的高斯过程响应面法。当训练样本参数间隔不确定时，可以达到最快的训练样本检索要求，弥补了传统的小样本高斯处理方法的不足。考虑温度和时间的影响，它可以准确地预测CFST拱桥的混凝土拱肋的等效刚度，掌握了钢管混凝土拱桥拱肋力学性能的时变退化规律。为了验证该方法的正确性和可靠性，利用通用有限元软件ANSYS建立了CFST拱桥的精细分析模型，并选择了最佳蠕变方程和温度效应函数。使用改进的高斯过程模型，预测了钢管混凝土拱桥在收缩，蠕变和温度效应的共同作用下，十年后填充混凝土的拱肋的等效计算刚度，以及挠度值和稳定性提出将系数作为预测精度的评价指标。