The paper starts with the distinction between conjunction-of-parts accounts and disjunction-of-possibilities accounts to truthlikeness (Sects. 1, 2). In Sect. 3, three distinctions between kinds of truthlikeness measures (t-measures) are introduced: (i) comparative versus numeric t-measures, (ii) t-measures for qualitative versus quantitative theories, and (iii) t-measures for deterministic versus probabilistic truth. These three kinds of truthlikeness are explicated and developed within a version of conjunctive part accounts based on content elements (Sects. 4, 5). The focus lies on measures of probabilistic truthlikeness, that are divided into t-measures for statistical probabilities and single case probabilities (Sect. 4). The logical notion of probabilistic truthlikeness (evaluated relative to true probabilistic laws) can be treated as a subcase of deterministic truthlikeness for quantitative theories (Sects. 4–6). In contrast, the epistemic notion of probabilistic truthlikeness (evaluated relative to given empirical evidence) creates genuinely new problems, especially for hypotheses about single case probabilities that are evaluated not by comparison to observed frequencies (as statistical probabilities), but by comparison to the truth values of single event statements (Sect. 6). By the method of meta-induction, competing theories about single case probabilities can be aggregated into a combined theory with optimal predictive success and epistemic truthlikeness (Sect. 7).

本文从区分部分帐户和可能性分离帐户到真实性的区别开始（第1、2节）。昆虫。3，介绍了三种真实性度量（t度量）之间的三个区别：（i）比较与数字t度量，（ii）定性与定量理论的t度量，以及（iii）确定性与概率的t度量真相。这三种真实性在基于内容元素的连接部分帐户版本中得到了阐述和发展（第4、5节）。重点在于概率真实性的度量，该度量分为统计概率和单个案例概率的t度量（第4节）。概率真实性的逻辑概念（相对于真实概率定律进行评估）可以看作是定量理论中确定性真实性的一个子案例（第4-6节）。相反，概率真实性的认知概念（相对于给定的经验证据进行评估）会带来全新的问题，特别是对于单例概率的假设，这些假设不是通过与观察频率（作为统计概率）进行比较而进行评估，而是通过与事实进行比较进行评估单事件语句的值（第6节）。通过元归纳法，可以将关于单例概率的竞争理论汇总为具有最佳预测成功和认知真实性的组合理论（第7节）。概率真实性的认识论概念（相对于给定的经验证据进行评估）带来了真正的新问题，尤其是对于单例概率的假设，这些假设不是通过与观察到的频率（作为统计概率）进行比较，而是通过与单例的真值进行比较来评估的事件语句（第6节）。通过元归纳法，可以将关于单例概率的竞争理论汇总为具有最佳预测成功和认知真实性的组合理论（第7节）。概率真实性的认识论概念（相对于给定的经验证据进行评估）带来了真正的新问题，尤其是对于单例概率的假设，这些假设不是通过与观察到的频率（作为统计概率）进行比较，而是通过与单例的真值进行比较来评估的事件语句（第6节）。通过元归纳法，可以将关于单例概率的竞争理论汇总为具有最佳预测成功和认知真实性的组合理论（第7节）。但与单事件语句的真值相比（第6节）。通过元归纳法，可以将关于单例概率的竞争理论汇总为具有最佳预测成功和认知真实性的组合理论（第7节）。但与单事件语句的真值相比（第6节）。通过元归纳法，可以将关于单例概率的竞争理论汇总为具有最佳预测成功和认知真实性的组合理论（第7节）。