Early 2013, high concentrations of aflatoxin M₁ were found in the bulk milk of a few dairy farms in the Netherlands. These high concentrations were caused by aflatoxin B₁ contaminated maize from Eastern Europe that was processed into compound feed, which was fed to dairy cows. Since the contamination was discovered in the downstream stages of the supply chain, multiple countries and parties were involved and recalls of the feed were necessary, resulting into financial losses. The aim of this study was to estimate the direct short-term financial losses related to the 2013 aflatoxin incident for the maize traders, the feed industry, and the dairy sector in the Netherlands. First, the sequence of events of the incident was retrieved. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation model was built to combine the scarce and uncertain data to estimate the direct financial losses for each stakeholder. The estimated total direct financial losses of this incident were estimated to be between 12 and 25 million euros. The largest share, about 60%, of the total losses was endured by the maize traders. About 39% of the total losses were for the feed industry, and less than 1% of the total losses were for the dairy sector. The financial losses estimated in this study should be interpreted cautiously due to limitations associated with the quality of the data used. Furthermore, this incident led to indirect long-term financial effects, identified but not estimated in this study.

2013 年初，在荷兰一些奶牛场的散装牛奶中发现了高浓度的黄曲霉毒素 M ₁。这些高浓度是由黄曲霉毒素 B ₁引起的来自东欧的受污染玉米被加工成配合饲料，喂给奶牛。由于污染是在供应链下游环节发现的，牵涉到多个国家和多方，需要召回饲料，造成经济损失。本研究的目的是估计与 2013 年黄曲霉毒素事件相关的荷兰玉米贸易商、饲料行业和乳制品行业的直接短期财务损失。首先，检索事件的事件顺序。然后，建立蒙特卡罗模拟模型，结合稀缺和不确定的数据来估计每个利益相关者的直接财务损失。据估计，此次事件造成的直接经济损失总额估计在 12 至 2500 万欧元之间。最大的份额，大约 60% 的损失由玉米贸易商承担。约 39% 的总损失来自饲料行业，不到 1% 的总损失来自乳制品行业。由于与所用数据质量相关的限制，应谨慎解释本研究中估计的财务损失。此外，这一事件导致了间接的长期财务影响，在本研究中确定但未估计。