Extensive research has identified factors influencing collective-action participation. However, less is known about how collective-action outcomes (i.e., success and failure) shape engagement in social movements over time. Using data collected before and after the 2017 marriage-equality debate in Australia, we conducted a latent profile analysis that indicated that success unified supporters of change (n = 420), whereas failure created subgroups among opponents (n = 419), reflecting four divergent responses: disengagement (resigned acceptors), moderate disengagement and continued investment (moderates), and renewed commitment to the cause using similar strategies (stay-the-course opponents) or new strategies (innovators). Resigned acceptors were least inclined to act following failure, whereas innovators were generally more likely to engage in conventional action and justify using radical action relative to the other profiles. These divergent reactions were predicted by differing baseline levels of social identification, group efficacy, and anger. Collective-action outcomes dynamically shape participation in social movements; this is an important direction for future research.

广泛的研究已经确定了影响集体行动参与的因素。然而，人们对集体行动的结果（即成功和失败）如何随着时间的推移影响社会运动的参与而知之甚少。使用 2017 年澳大利亚婚姻平等辩论前后收集的数据，我们进行了一项潜在概况分析，表明成功统一了变革的支持者 ( n = 420)，而失败则在反对者中创造了子群体 ( n= 419），反映了四种不同的反应：脱离（辞职的接受者）、适度脱离和继续投资（适度），以及使用类似策略（坚持不懈的反对者）或新策略（创新者）重新致力于事业。辞职的接受者在失败后最不倾向于采取行动，而创新者通常更有可能采取传统行动并证明使用相对于其他概况的激进行动是合理的。这些不同的反应是通过不同的社会认同、群体效能和愤怒的基线水平来预测的。集体行动的结果动态地影响了社会运动的参与；这是未来研究的一个重要方向。