This paper analyzes the impact of ethnic heterogeneity and military conflict on the degree of regional consumption risk-sharing in Ukraine. Ethnicity and violent conflicts can influence risk-sharing e.g. through social capital, ethnic fractionalization, migration, and remittances. The sample consists of 25 Ukrainian oblasts and covers the highly volatile period from 2003 to 2016. Our results suggest that the degree of consumption risk-sharing is comparably high, between 70 and 80% on average. Moreover, consumption risk-sharing is significantly higher in the regions with a large Russian minority, which are enjoying special treatment by Russia. By contrast, the degree of financial development, as proxied by deposit and loan share in GRP, does not significantly affect the regional degree of consumption risk-sharing. Furthermore, we apply spatial models to control for spatial dependence across regions. Results are confirmed and it is shown that spatial correlation is important. Finally, we show that the recent geopolitical conflict in east Ukraine changed the regional degree of consumption risk-sharing.

本文分析了种族异质性和军事冲突对乌克兰区域消费风险分担程度的影响。种族和暴力冲突会影响风险分担，例如通过社会资本，种族分割，移民和汇款。该样本由25个乌克兰州组成，涵盖了2003年至2016年的高度波动时期。我们的结果表明，消费风险分担的程度相对较高，平均为70％至80％。此外，在俄罗斯少数民族特别受到俄罗斯特殊待遇的地区，消费风险分担明显更高。相比之下，由GRP中的存贷款份额所代表的金融发展程度并没有显着影响区域消费风险分担的程度。此外，我们应用空间模型来控制跨区域的空间依赖性。结果得到证实，并且表明空间相关性很重要。最后，我们证明乌克兰东部最近发生的地缘政治冲突改变了区域消费风险分担的程度。