Increasing concerns exist about possible decreased wintering duck abundance and hunting opportunities in the southern regions of the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways of North America. Researchers suggest these decreased abundances of ducks may be related to winter warming and related climatic phenomena. Accordingly, we tested predictions that duck abundance was increasing more at northern than southern latitudes, and that trends were related to average winter temperatures (Dec–Jan). We tested predictions using National Audubon Society Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data collected during December 1969 through January 2019 from 31 states in the United States and 6 Canadian provinces that comprise the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways for 16 species of dabbling and diving ducks (Anatinae). We found support for the prediction that CBC trends in duck abundance vary with latitude, and mean winter temperature explained nearly half the variation in CBC trends for 12 of 16 species. For some species, trends were negative in warmer regions and positive in colder regions. For others, trends were stable or slightly positive in warmer regions but more positive in colder regions. These results provide empirical evidence supporting climate‐influenced winter range changes by important game duck species and suggest challenges and opportunities for waterfowl population, habitat, and hunting management in North America and the northern hemisphere. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

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密西西比州和大西洋飞线的半个世纪冬鸭的丰度和温度趋势

人们越来越担心大西洋南部地区和北美密西西比州航道的越冬鸭数量可能减少以及狩猎机会。研究人员认为，鸭子数量的减少可能与冬季变暖和相关的气候现象有关。因此，我们测试了以下预测：北纬度比南纬度增加了鸭的数量，并且趋势与冬季平均温度（12月至1月）有关。我们使用1969年12月至2019年1月期间从美国31个州和6个加拿大省组成的国家奥杜邦协会圣诞节鸟类数量（CBC）数据测试了预测，该6个省包括大西洋和密西西比州的飞行小道，其中有16种涉水鸭和跳水鸭（Anatinae） 。我们发现支持以下预测：鸭的丰度的CBC趋势随纬度变化，并且平均冬季温度解释了16种中的12种CBC趋势的近一半变化。对于某些物种，温暖地区的趋势是消极的，而寒冷地区则是积极的。对于另一些国家，温暖地区的趋势稳定或略为积极，而寒冷地区则更为积极。这些结果提供了支持重要野鸭物种支持气候变化的冬季范围变化的经验证据，并暗示了北美和北半球水禽种群，栖息地和狩猎管理的挑战和机遇。©2021野生动物协会。温暖地区的趋势为负，而寒冷地区则为正。对于另一些国家，温暖地区的趋势稳定或略为积极，而寒冷地区则更为积极。这些结果提供了支持重要野鸭物种支持气候变化的冬季范围变化的经验证据，并提出了北美和北半球水禽种群，栖息地和狩猎管理的挑战和机遇。©2021野生动物协会。温暖地区的趋势为负，而寒冷地区则为正。对于另一些国家，温暖地区的趋势稳定或略为积极，而寒冷地区则更为积极。这些结果提供了支持重要野鸭物种支持气候变化的冬季范围变化的经验证据，并暗示了北美和北半球水禽种群，栖息地和狩猎管理的挑战和机遇。©2021野生动物协会。北美和北半球的狩猎管理。©2021野生动物协会。北美和北半球的狩猎管理。©2021野生动物协会。