The observed statistical seismic quantity is critical to understanding the nature of earthquakes and potential hazards in earthquake-prone areas. We have studied the nowcasting concept, which examines the current uncertain situation of earthquake risk assessment in Sarpol-e Zahab and the surrounding areas. In order to evaluate the statistical distribution of the interevent counts of small events that occur between large events, we used the natural time concept rather than clock time. The earthquake potential score (EPS) was calculated as the total number of small earthquakes after the last large occurrence in the studied area. We have determined the EPS values to consider events of M ≥ 4.4 within two different radius (250 and 350 km) around the city center studied. The EPS values for Sarpol-e Zahab at 250 km corresponding to M ≥ 5.5 and six events found to be almost 0.86 and 0.97, respectively, while at 350 km these values are equal to 0.73 and 0.50 for M ≥ 5.5 and six events, respectively.

观测到的统计地震数量对于了解地震的性质和地震多发地区的潜在危害至关重要。我们已经研究了临近预报概念，该概念检验了Sarpol-e Zahab及其周围地区地震风险评估的当前不确定情况。为了评估在大事件之间发生的小事件的事件计数的统计分布，我们使用自然时间概念而不是时钟时间。地震潜在得分（EPS）是根据研究区域中最后一次大地震发生后的小地震总数计算的。我们确定了EPS值，以考虑M事件 ≥4.4在所研究的市中心周围的两个不同半径（250和350 km）内。在对应于250公里为萨尔波勒扎哈卜的EPS值中号 ≥5.5和六个事件发现分别为几乎0.86和0.97，而在350公里这些值等于0.73和0.50中号 ≥5.5和六个事件，分别。