ABSTRACT

The ‘Great Lockdown’ in response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe world-wide economic crisis. In the euro area countries sovereign debt-to-GDP ratios are on the rise and reductions in expected fiscal surpluses raise sustainability concerns amongst investors. This paper provides novel estimates of non-linear state-dependent fiscal limits for the five largest euro area countries. Within the DSGE model I build a COVID-19 scenario calibrated to match the decline in real GDP growth forecasts between February and April 2020 and the fiscal stimulus packages announced until the end of March 2020. On average, fiscal space contracts by 58.4% of national GDP.

摘要

针对 COVID-19 大流行的“大封锁”导致了严重的全球经济危机。在欧元区国家，主权债务与 GDP 的比率正在上升，预期财政盈余的减少引发了投资者对可持续性的担忧。本文为五个最大的欧元区国家提供了非线性国家依赖财政限制的新估计。在 DSGE 模型中，我构建了一个 COVID-19 情景，该情景经过校准以匹配 2020 年 2 月至 4 月期间实际 GDP 增长预测的下降以及到 2020 年 3 月底宣布的财政刺激方案。平均而言，财政空间收缩了 58.4%国内生产总值。