ABSTRACT

We developed a simple conceptual socio-hydrological model to explore the mutual interactions between water management systems and society. We examined the feedback among climate, population, wealth and water availability and capital investment. Given the focus on the interplay among these multiple variables, some simple schemes were designated in order to simulate rainfall inputs, surface and aquifer hydrology and to mimic economic and social mechanisms. The proposed model is applied to synthetic cases in order to explore the dynamics of the water demand, water availability and water deficit that in turn influence the capital invested in water infrastructures. The results show how societal wealth, the number of people living in a given area and the local climate can determine societal efforts in exploiting water resources, the frequency of water deficits and the amount of money invested overall in infrastructures.

摘要

我们开发了一个简单的概念性社会水文模型来探索水资源管理系统与社会之间的相互作用。我们研究了气候、人口、财富和水资源可用性以及资本投资之间的反馈。鉴于关注这些多个变量之间的相互作用，指定了一些简单的方案以模拟降雨输入、地表和含水层水文并模拟经济和社会机制。所提出的模型应用于综合案例，以探索用水需求、可用水量和水资源短缺的动态，这些动态反过来影响投资于水基础设施的资本。结果显示了社会财富、生活在特定地区的人口数量和当地气候如何决定社会在开发水资源方面的努力，