Globally, the risk of a child dying before celebrating their fifth birthday is still high at 5.3 million deaths in 2018 alone. Nigeria is among the few countries that are yet to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal Target of keeping under-5 death to as low as 25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. A recent study found that the under-5 mortality rate in Nigeria is still high with 1 in 8 Nigerian children dying before reaching the age of 5. In this study, the effect of a child’s spatial location in Nigeria on their likelihood of dying before age 5 was examined alongside other key covariates. Bayesian geo-additive regression models were fitted to the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys data. Statistical inference was based on the Bayesian paradigm via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods, and models were assessed using the deviance information criterion. Under-five mortality rate varied significantly across spatial locations in Nigeria with Kebbi, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kogi and Gombe states having the highest rates. The likelihood of a child dying before age 5 increased among women with primary education and women aged 38 years and over. Other characteristics associated with high under-5 death are poverty, male child, low birth weight and multiple births. The current study has helped to identify geographical ‘hotspots’ as well as the key factors driving under-5 deaths in Nigeria to inform the effective design and implementation of timely and efficient interventions.

在全球范围内，儿童在庆祝五岁生日之前死亡的风险仍然很高，仅 2018 年就有 530 万人死亡。尼日利亚是少数几个尚未实现可持续发展目标的国家之一，即到 2030 年将 5 岁以下儿童死亡率控制在每 1000 名活产儿中 25 人。最近的一项研究发现，尼日利亚 5 岁以下儿童死亡率仍然八分之一的尼日利亚儿童在 5 岁之前死亡。在这项研究中，尼日利亚儿童的空间位置对其 5 岁之前死亡可能性的影响与其他关键协变量一起进行了检查。贝叶斯地理可加回归模型适用于 2018 年尼日利亚人口和健康调查数据。统计推断基于贝叶斯范式，通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟方法，并使用偏差信息准则评估模型。尼日利亚不同地区的五岁以下儿童死亡率差异很大，其中凯比、吉加瓦、卡杜纳、科吉和贡贝州的死亡率最高。受过初等教育的女性和 38 岁及以上的女性中，孩子在 5 岁之前死亡的可能性增加。与 5 岁以下儿童高死亡率相关的其他特征包括贫困、男孩、低出生体重和多胞胎。目前的研究有助于确定地理“热点”以及导致尼日利亚 5 岁以下儿童死亡的关键因素，为有效设计和实施及时有效的干预措施提供信息。