We present a tutorial demonstration using a surrogate-model based uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach to study dynamic earthquake rupture on a rough fault surface. The UQ approach performs model calibration where we choose simulation points, fit and validate an approximate surrogate model or emulator, and then examine the input space to see which inputs can be ruled out from the data. Our approach relies on the mogp_emulator package to perform model calibration, and the FabSim3 component from the VECMA toolkit to streamline the workflow, enabling users to manage the workflow using the command line to curate reproducible simulations on local and remote resources. The tools in this tutorial provide an example template that allows domain researchers that are not necessarily experts in the underlying methods to apply them to complex problems. We illustrate the use of the package by applying the methods to dynamic earthquake rupture, which solves the elastic wave equation for the size of an earthquake and the resulting ground shaking based on the stress tensor in the Earth. We show through the tutorial results that the method is able to rule out large portions of the input parameter space, which could lead to new ways to constrain the stress tensor in the Earth based on earthquake observations.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Reliability and reproducibility in computational science: implementing verification, validation and uncertainty quantification in silico’.

我们使用基于代理模型的不确定性量化 (UQ) 方法来研究粗糙断层表面上的动态地震破裂，我们提供了一个教程演示。UQ 方法执行模型校准，我们选择模拟点、拟合和验证近似代理模型或仿真器，然后检查输入空间以查看可以从数据中排除哪些输入。我们的方法依赖于mogp_emulator包来执行模型校准，以及来自 VECMA 工具包的 FabSim3 组件以简化工作流程，使用户能够使用命令行管理工作流程，以在本地和远程资源上策划可重复的模拟。本教程中的工具提供了一个示例模板，允许不一定是底层方法专家的领域研究人员将它们应用于复杂问题。我们通过将方法应用于动态地震破裂来说明该软件包的使用，该方法根据地球中的应力张量求解地震大小和由此产生的地面震动的弹性波方程。我们通过教程结果表明该方法能够排除大部分输入参数空间，

本文是主题问题“计算科学中的可靠性和再现性：在计算机中实现验证、确认和不确定性量化”的一部分。