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Does deeper financial integration lead to macroeconomic and financial instability in Asia?
Economic Analysis and Policy ( IF 7.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.03.012
Karim Eslamloueyan , Neda Fatemifar

Even though a deeper financial integration and higher economic and financial stability are the prime goals of many Asian policymakers, no researcher has studied the relationship between integration and (in)stability in Asia. To fill this gap in the literature, this paper investigates the causality between financial integration and macroeconomic and financial instability. To this end, we use the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate a set of dynamic panel data models for a block of Asian countries over the period 2000–2017. Our estimation results show that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between financial integration and instability in Asia. Moreover, we find that financial integration causes instability in output and credit markets. The overall results show that macroeconomic and financial instability in Asia leads to financial disintegration. More specifically, the volatilities of the exchange rate and output growth cause financial fragmentation. Furthermore, we underscore the role of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies in offsetting the adverse effect of financial integration on macroeconomic and financial stability in Asia. Finally, the global financial crisis of 2008 has increased financial disintegration and instability in Asia. Our findings might help Asian policymakers to choose their policy targets when integrating into the global financial system.



中文翻译:

更深层次的金融一体化是否会导致亚洲的宏观经济和金融不稳定?

尽管更深入的金融一体化和更高的经济与金融稳定性是许多亚洲决策者的主要目标,但还没有研究人员研究过亚洲一体化与(不稳定)之间的关系。为了填补文献中的空白,本文研究了金融一体化与宏观经济和金融不稳定之间的因果关系。为此,我们使用广义矩法来估计2000-2017年期间一部分亚洲国家/地区的一组动态面板数据模型。我们的估计结果表明,亚洲的金融一体化与不稳定之间存在双向因果关系。此外,我们发现金融一体化会导致产出和信贷市场的不稳定。总体结果表明,亚洲的宏观经济和金融动荡导致金融瓦解。更具体地说,汇率和产出增长的波动会导致金融分散。此外,我们强调了协调一致的财政和货币政策在抵消金融一体化对亚洲宏观经济和金融稳定的不利影响方面的作用。最后,2008年的全球金融危机加剧了亚洲的金融崩溃和动荡。我们的发现可能会帮助亚洲决策者在融入全球金融体系时选择其政策目标。我们强调协调的财政和货币政策在抵消金融一体化对亚洲宏观经济和金融稳定的不利影响方面的作用。最后,2008年的全球金融危机加剧了亚洲的金融崩溃和动荡。我们的发现可能会帮助亚洲决策者在融入全球金融体系时选择其政策目标。我们强调协调的财政和货币政策在抵消金融一体化对亚洲宏观经济和金融稳定的不利影响方面的作用。最后,2008年的全球金融危机加剧了亚洲的金融崩溃和动荡。我们的发现可能会帮助亚洲决策者在融入全球金融体系时选择其政策目标。

更新日期:2021-04-01
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