Flood simulations are important for flood (fatality) risk assessment. This article provides insight into the sensitivity of flood fatality risks to the model resolution of flood simulations and to several uncertain parameters in the loss of life model used. A case study is conducted for river flooding in a polder in the Netherlands (the Bommelerwaard) where the Dutch approach for loss of life estimation is applied. Flood models with resolutions of 100, 25, and 5 m are considered. Results show locally increased mortality rates in higher resolution simulations nearby structures including road embankments, dikes, and culverts. This causes a larger maximum individual risk value (annual probability of death for a person due to flooding) which has consequences for safety standards based on the individual risk criterion. Mortality rate in the breach zone is also affected by representations of buildings as solid objects versus as roughness elements. Furthermore, changes in the loss of life estimation approach via alternative ways of including people's behaviour, building characteristics, and age of the population, have a significant impact on flood fatality risk. Results from this study can be used to support future risk assessments and decision making with respect to safety standards.

中文翻译：

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水力模型分辨率和生命损失模型修改对洪水死亡风险估计的影响：荷兰 Bommelerwaard 的案例研究

洪水模拟对于洪水（死亡）风险评估很重要。本文深入探讨了洪水死亡风险对洪水模拟的模型分辨率和所使用的生命损失模型中的几个不确定参数的敏感性。对荷兰 (Bommelerwaard) 一个圩田的河流洪水进行了案例研究，其中应用了荷兰估计生命损失的方法。考虑了分辨率为 100、25 和 5 m 的洪水模型。结果显示，在路堤、堤防和涵洞等建筑物附近的高分辨率模拟中局部死亡率增加。这会导致更大的最大个人风险值（一个人因洪水而死亡的年概率），这会对基于个人风险标准的安全标准产生影响。破坏区的死亡率还受到将建筑物表示为固体物体与粗糙度元素的影响。此外，通过包括人们行为、建筑特征和人口年龄在内的替代方式，生命损失估计方法的变化对洪水死亡风险产生重大影响。这项研究的结果可用于支持未来关于安全标准的风险评估和决策。