ABSTRACT

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic policies on the Iranian economy. The study covers the time between 1978-2017. The results illustrate the role of the money supply and government spending in supporting growth, although contributing to inflationary pressures in the long run, attesting to supply-side constraints. In the short-run, policies have aimed to provide support to the economy in the face of continued fluctuations with the oil price and spillovers from the geopolitical tensions attributed to sanctions. The exchange rate has played a key role in absorbing, but at times magnifying the adverse effects of these tensions. Continued deterioration of the fundamentals of the Iranian economy forced an official devaluation as the exchange rate proved to be misaligned with the fundamentals of the economy against the backdrop of the limited capacity of the Central Bank to continue to intervene to defend stability. In the meantime, a parallel exchange rate market has been flourishing to satisfy the market’s needs as culminated in the spread between the market exchange rate and the official exchange rate. A wider spread between the parallel market rate and the official rate has signified overvaluation of the rial and proved to be a major source of inflationary expectations and pressures. Wider spread has demanded frequent interventions by the Central Bank to defend the official rate and ultimately has forced an official devaluation of the exchange rate, further increasing inflationary pressures with negative effects on the output supply given high dependency on imports for consumption and investment.

摘要

本文考察了宏观经济政策对伊朗经济的影响。该研究涵盖了 1978-2017 年之间的时间。结果说明了货币供应和政府支出在支持增长方面的作用，尽管从长远来看会加剧通胀压力，证明了供给侧的限制。在短期内，面对油价持续波动和制裁导致的地缘政治紧张局势的溢出效应，政策旨在为经济提供支持。汇率在吸收、但有时会放大这些紧张局势的不利影响方面发挥了关键作用。伊朗经济基本面的持续恶化迫使官方贬值，因为在中央银行继续干预以维护稳定的能力有限的背景下，汇率与经济基本面不符。与此同时，平行汇率市场蓬勃发展以满足市场需求，最终导致市场汇率与官方汇率之间的利差。平行市场汇率和官方汇率之间的更大差价表明里亚尔被高估，并被证明是通胀预期和压力的主要来源。扩大的利差要求中央银行频繁干预以捍卫官方汇率，并最终迫使官方汇率贬值，