Due to climate change, worldwide glaciers are rapidly declining. The trend will continue into the future, with consequences for sea level, water availability and tourism. Here, we assess the future evolution of all glaciers in Scandinavia and Iceland until 2100 using the coupled surface mass-balance ice-flow model GloGEMflow. The model is initialised with three distinct past climate data products (E-OBS, ERA-I, ERA-5), while future climate is prescribed by both global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), in order to analyze their impact on glacier evolution. By 2100, we project Scandinavian glaciers to lose between 67 ± 18% and 90 ± 7% of their present-day (2018) volume under a low (RCP2.6) and a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario, respectively. Over the same period, losses for Icelandic glaciers are projected to be between 43 ± 11% (RCP2.6) and 85 ± 7% (RCP8.5). The projected evolution is only little impacted by both the choice of climate data products used in the past and the spatial resolution of the future climate projections, with differences in the ice volume remaining by 2100 of 7 and 5%, respectively. This small sensitivity is attributed to our model calibration strategy that relies on observed glacier-specific mass balances and thus compensates for differences between climate forcing products.

中文翻译：

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气候强迫产物对斯堪的纳维亚半岛和冰岛未来冰川演化的影响有限

由于气候变化，全球冰川正在迅速减少。这一趋势将持续到未来，对海平面、水资源和旅游业产生影响。在这里，我们使用耦合的表面质量平衡冰流模型 GloGEMflow 评估斯堪的纳维亚和冰岛所有冰川的未来演变，直到 2100 年。该模型使用三个不同的过去气候数据产品（E-OBS、ERA-I、ERA-5）进行初始化，而未来气候由全球和区域气候模型（GCM 和 RCM）规定，以分析它们对冰川演化。到 2100 年，我们预计斯堪的纳维亚冰川在低排放 (RCP2.6) 和高 (RCP8.5) 排放情景下将分别损失其当前（2018 年）体积的 67 ± 18% 和 90 ± 7%。在同一时期，冰岛冰川的损失预计在 43 ± 11% 之间（RCP2. 6) 和 85 ± 7% (RCP8.5)。过去使用的气候数据产品的选择和未来气候预测的空间分辨率对预测的演变影响很小，到 2100 年冰量的差异分别为 7% 和 5%。这种小灵敏度归因于我们的模型校准策略，该策略依赖于观察到的冰川特定的质量平衡，从而补偿了气候强迫产品之间的差异。