Natural gas hydrate (NGH) has been widely considered as an alternative to conventional oil and gas resources in the future energy resource supply since Trofimuk’s first resource assessment in 1973. At least 29 global estimates have been published from various studies so far, among which 24 estimates are greater than the total conventional gas resources. If drawn in chronological order, the 29 historical resource estimates show a clear downward trend, reflecting the changes in our perception with respect to its resource potential with increasing our knowledge on the NGH with time. A time series of the 29 estimates was used to establish a statistical model for predict the future trend. The model produces an expected resource value of 41.46 × 10¹² m³ at the year of 2050. The statistical trend projected future gas hydrate resource is only about 10% of total natural gas resource in conventional reservoir, consistent with estimates of global technically recoverable resources (TRR) in gas hydrate from Monte Carlo technique based on volumetric and material balance approaches. Considering the technical challenges and high cost in commercial production and the lack of competitive advantages compared with rapid growing unconventional and renewable resources, only those on the very top of the gas hydrate resource pyramid will be added to future energy supply. It is unlikely that the NGH will be the major energy source in the future.

自1973年Trofimuk进行首次资源评估以来，天然气水合物（NGH）在未来的能源资源供应中已被广泛认为是常规油气资源的替代品。迄今为止，至少有29项全球评估报告来自各种研究，其中24篇估计数大于常规天然气总资源。如果按时间顺序绘制，则29个历史资源估算值将呈现明显的下降趋势，反映出随着对NGH的了解随着时间的增长，我们对其资源潜力的看法也发生了变化。使用29个估算值的时间序列来建立用于预测未来趋势的统计模型。该模型产生的预期资源值为41.46×10 ¹² m ³到2050年，该统计趋势预测未来天然气水合物资源仅占常规储层天然气总资源的10％，这与基于蒙特卡洛技术基于体积和能量的全球技术可采资源对天然气水合物的估算相一致。物质平衡方法。考虑到商业生产中的技术挑战和高成本以及与迅速增长的非常规和可再生资源相比缺乏竞争优势，只有天然气水合物资源金字塔最顶端的那些才会被添加到未来的能源供应中。NGH不太可能成为未来的主要能源。