Attribution and projections of temperature extreme trends in South America based on CMIP5 models,Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

Attribution and projections of temperature extreme trends in South America based on CMIP5 models
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-24 , DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14591
Matilde Rusticucci ₁ , Natalia Zazulie ₁

Affiliation

Temperature extreme indices were analyzed for five continental regions of southern South America defined according to their climatic characteristics. Gridded observations, reanalysis, and global-coupled climate models from CMIP5 were used with the approach of temperature extreme trend attribution analysis on fixed-threshold and percentile-based temperature extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The largest positive trends are exhibited in the tropical nights index, and a clear anthropogenic signal is evident in the subtropical region. In the subtropical central Andes, there is a decrease in the frost days index and increases in the tropical nights and summer days indices, and an anthropogenic signal is evident. In the Patagonian region, all trends from the historical runs were significant, while the ones from the natural experiment were nonsignificant, showing the marked effect of anthropogenic forcing in this region in the extreme temperature events. Projected changes in extreme indices for the 21st century are consistent with a warming climate, and larger changes are expected in the warm nights index.

中文翻译：

基于CMIP5模型的南美极端气温趋势归因与预测

分析了根据气候特征定义的南美洲南部五个大陆地区的极端温度指数。来自 CMIP5 的网格观测、再分析和全球耦合气候模型与气候变化检测和指数专家组 (ETCCDI) 定义的固定阈值和基于百分位的温度极端指数的极端温度趋势归因分析方法一起使用。热带夜间指数呈现出最大的积极趋势，亚热带地区有明显的人为信号。亚热带中部安第斯山脉霜日指数降低，热带黑夜和夏季日指数升高，人为信号明显。在巴塔哥尼亚地区，历史运行的所有趋势都很显着，而自然实验的结果不显着，表明该地区人为强迫在极端温度事件中的显着影响。21世纪极端指数预测变化与气候变暖相一致，暖夜指数预计变化较大。

更新日期：2021-03-24

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

阅读更多本刊最新论文本刊介绍/投稿指南11