Oil palm production in Indonesia illustrates the intense pressure that exists worldwide to convert natural ecosystems to agricultural production. Oil palm production has increased because of expansion of cultivated area rather than due to average-yield increases. We used a data-rich modelling approach to investigate how intensification on existing plantations could help Indonesia meet palm oil demand while preserving fragile ecosystems. We found that average current yield represents 62% and 53% of the attainable yield in large and smallholder plantations, respectively. Narrowing yield gaps via improved agronomic management, together with a limited expansion that excludes fragile ecosystems, would save 2.6 million hectares of forests and peatlands and avoid 732 MtCO₂e compared with following historical trends in yield and land use. Fine-tuning policy to promote intensification, along with investments in agricultural research and development, can help reconcile economic and environmental goals.

印度尼西亚的油棕生产表明，全世界存在着将自然生态系统转化为农业生产的巨大压力。油棕产量的增加是由于种植面积的扩大，而不是由于平均产量的增加。我们使用了数据丰富的建模方法来调查现有人工林的集约化如何在保持脆弱的生态系统的同时帮助印度尼西亚满足棕榈油需求。我们发现，平均当前产量分别代表大型和小型种植园可获得的单产的62％和53％。通过改善农艺管理来缩小单产差距，加上有限的扩张（不包括脆弱的生态系统），将节省260万公顷的森林和泥炭地，并避免732 MtCO ₂e与产量和土地使用的以下历史趋势进行了比较。为促进集约化而进行的微调政策，以及对农业研究和开发的投资，可以帮助调和经济和环境目标。