ABSTRACT

The current study explores the link between tourist demand and terrorism in Egypt using monthly data for the period from 1995 to 2018. We aim to investigate whether this relationship is unidirectional of bidirectional and whether it exhibits persistence in the long run. Terrorism is proxied by performing principal component analysis on the number of terrorist incidents and the number of resulting deaths and injuries. We test for cointegration employing a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction. We find evidence of a long-term cointegrating relationship between tourism and terrorism. Our empirical results show that the direction of this causal relationship is from terrorism to tourism only, meaning that policymakers should not expect a rise in terrorist activity during periods of increased tourist arrivals. Our findings indicate that authorities should enforce strict measures against terrorism in order to promote safety and security within the tourism context.

摘要

本研究使用 1995 年至 2018 年期间的月度数据探讨埃及旅游需求与恐怖主义之间的联系。我们旨在调查这种关系是单向的还是双向的，以及它是否表现出长期的持久性。恐怖主义是通过对恐怖事件的数量和由此造成的死伤人数进行主成分分析来代理的。我们使用带误差校正的向量自回归模型测试协整。我们发现了旅游业与恐怖主义之间存在长期协整关系的证据。我们的实证结果表明，这种因果关系的方向只是从恐怖主义到旅游业，这意味着政策制定者不应期望在游客人数增加期间恐怖活动会增加。