Simulation of river flow in Britain under climate change: Baseline performance and future seasonal changes,Hydrological Processes

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Simulation of river flow in Britain under climate change: Baseline performance and future seasonal changes
Hydrological Processes ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-23 , DOI: 10.1002/hyp.14137
A. L. Kay ₁

Affiliation

Climate change is likely to manifest in river flow changes across the globe, which could have wide‐ranging consequences for society and the natural environment. A number of previous studies used the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) to investigate the potential impacts on river flows in Britain, but these projections were recently updated by the release of UKCP18, thus there is a need to update flow studies. Here, the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections are applied using a national‐scale grid‐based hydrological model, to investigate potential future changes in seasonal mean river flows across Great Britain. Analysis of hydrological model performance using baseline climate model data (1980–2010) shows relatively good agreement with use of observation‐based data, particularly after application of a monthly precipitation bias‐correction. Analysis of seasonal mean flow changes for two future time‐slices (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) suggests large decreases in summer flows across the country (median −45% by 2050–2080), but possible increases in winter flows (median 9% by 2050–2080), especially in the north and west. Information on the potential range of flow changes using the latest projections is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies, and comparisons with previous projections can help update existing plans, although such comparisons are often not straightforward.

中文翻译：

气候变化下英国河流流量的模拟：基线表现和未来的季节性变化

气候变化可能会在全球范围内的河流流量变化中体现出来，这可能对社会和自然环境产生广泛的影响。之前的许多研究都使用《 2009年英国气候预测》（UKCP09）来调查对英国河流流量的潜在影响，但是最近通过UKCP18的发布对这些预测进行了更新，因此有必要更新流量研究。在这里，UKCP18区域（12公里）的预测是使用基于国家尺度的网格水文模型进行的，以调查整个英国季节性河流平均流量的潜在未来变化。使用基线气候模型数据（1980-2010年）对水文模型性能的分析显示，与基于观测的数据的使用相对较好，尤其是在应用每月降水偏差校正之后。对两个未来时间段（2020-2050年和2050-2080年）的季节性平均流量变化的分析表明，全国夏季流量大幅减少（到2050-2080年中值为-45％），但冬季流量可能会有所增加（中位数9到2050年至2080年的百分比），尤其是在北部和西部。使用最新的预测来了解流量变化的潜在范围信息对于开发适当的适应策略是必不可少的，与以前的预测进行比较可以帮助更新现有计划，尽管这种比较通常并不简单。

更新日期：2021-04-29

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