The potential predictability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter (November–February) is investigated using observational data for the period of 1979–2016. For various MJO indices, nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents are computed to quantify the MJO predictability under the easterly and westerly phases of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (easterly: EQBO and westerly: WQBO). All MJO indices exhibit higher predictability during EQBO winters than during WQBO winters. Excluding strong ENSO years from EQBO and WQBO winters has a limited impact on MJO predictability. The highest potential predictability of 43 days during EQBO winters and 37 days during WQBO winters is found for the MJO index obtained from bandpass-filtered (30–80 days) outgoing longwave radiation and wind data. In contrast, the potential predictability of the MJO from the real-time multivariate MJO index is 21 days during EQBO winters and 13 days during WQBO winters. The longer persistence and less disorganization of the MJO during the EQBO winters lead to the higher predictability for EQBO winters, as compared with that for WQBO winters.

利用1979-2016年期间的观测资料，研究了北方冬季（11月至2月）的Madden-Julian涛动（MJO）的潜在可预测性。对于各种MJO指数，计算了非线性局部Lyapunov指数以量化准两年度振荡的东风和西风阶段（东部：EQBO和西风：WQBO）下的MJO可预测性。与WQBO冬季相比，在EQBO冬季，所有MJO指数均具有更高的可预测性。排除EQBO和WQBO冬季的ENSO强年，对MJO的可预测性影响有限。从带通滤波（30-80天）的出射长波辐射和风数据获得的MJO指数发现，EQBO冬季43天和WQBO冬季37天具有最高的潜在可预测性。相比之下，根据实时多元MJO指数，MJO的潜在可预测性在EQBO冬季为21天，在WQBO冬季为13天。与WQBO冬季相比，EQBO冬季期间MJO的持续时间更长且杂乱程度较小，这导致EQBO冬季的可预测性更高。