Abstract

Drought risk management has gradually emerged as an important discipline and the traditional negative drought management changes to active drought management. Drought risk assessment and control are the core of drought risk management. In this study, based on precipitation anomaly (P_a) and soil moisture content anomaly index, the stochastic drought index model was established to calculate the drought distribution under different probability. Considering risk of disaster (H), vulnerability of the environment (S), exposure of the disaster bearing body (V), and disaster prevention and mitigation capability (C), a water resource optimization allocation model based on drought disaster risk assessment model was established to minimize the regional drought disaster risk. The developed models were used in Heilongjiang Province, China, and the results showed that: (1) the drought indexes based on the stochastic method can reflect the regional drought under different probabilities, providing managers with comprehensive drought information to manage the disaster; (2) the optimal allocation of water resources can reduce the risk of drought disaster in drought-prone months and drought-prone areas; and (3) studying drought risk assessment and regulation considering grain yield can be used to effectively understand and alleviate drought effects in the study area, reduce farmers' economic losses and ensure local food security.

Graphic abstract

中文翻译：

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基于水资源优化配置的干旱灾害风险管理

摘要

干旱风险管理已逐渐成为一门重要学科，传统的负干旱管理已转变为主动干旱管理。干旱风险评估与控制是干旱风险管理的核心。在这项研究中，基于降水距平（P_一）和土壤水分含量异常指标，随机干旱指数模型的建立是为了计算不同概率下的干旱分布。考虑灾害风险（H），环境脆弱性（S），受灾主体的暴露（V）和防灾减灾能力（C）建立了基于干旱灾害风险评估模型的水资源优化配置模型，以最大限度地减少区域干旱灾害风险。结果表明：（1）基于随机方法的干旱指数能够反映不同概率下的区域干旱，为管理者提供了综合的干旱管理信息。（2）在干旱多发地区和干旱多发地区，水资源的优化配置可以减少发生干旱的风险；（3）考虑粮食产量的干旱风险评估与调控研究可以有效地理解和减轻研究区域的干旱影响，减少农民的经济损失，确保当地的粮食安全。

图形摘要