ABSTRACT

To reliably choose morally sound policies, whether as a society or as an individual, will typically require a deep and wide-ranging base of relevant knowledge. In this paper I consider the epistemic demands for morally sound action and policy in the Anthropocene. I argue that these demands are likely to be unsatisfied, leading to a potential downward spiral of ineffective action in the face of worsening conditions; this seems a strong possibility both for individual lives, and for societies as a whole. Given the likely scale of ignorance in the face of rapid, poorly-understood change, the best efforts of future generations to act morally may often be little more than guesses, with a far lower chance of asuccess than in more stable conditions. As moral failures mount, and conditions continue to deteriorate, our epistemic efforts seem likely to be pressured and subject to various biases, leading to further errors and failures. Our ability to live virtuously and to act rightly is likely to be put under severe strain in the Anthropocene. Our approach to ethics will likely need to change to the extent that, for a wide range of cases, we will not know what the right action to perform will be; we will typically be acting without such moral knowledge. The final section of my paper addresses ways in which we might attempt to address or mitigate these worries.

摘要

无论是作为社会还是作为个人，要可靠地选择道德上健全的政策，通常都需要深入而广泛的相关知识基础。在本文中，我考虑了人类世对道德健全的行动和政策的认知需求。我认为，这些要求可能无法得到满足，从而导致在面临恶化的情况时采取无效行动的潜在螺旋式下降；对于个人生活和整个社会来说，这似乎都是一个很大的可能性。考虑到在面对快速、难以理解的变化时可能无知的程度，未来几代人为道德行事所做的最大努力通常只是猜测，与更稳定的条件相比，成功的机会要低得多。随着道德败坏的增加，情况继续恶化，我们的认知努力似乎可能会受到压力并受到各种偏见的影响，从而导致进一步的错误和失败。在人类世，我们有道德地生活和正确行事的能力可能会受到严重的压力。我们对道德的态度可能需要改变到一定程度，因为在许多情况下，我们不知道应该采取什么正确的行动；我们通常会在没有这种道德知识的情况下采取行动。我论文的最后一部分讨论了我们可能试图解决或减轻这些担忧的方法。我们不知道什么是正确的行动；我们通常会在没有这种道德知识的情况下采取行动。我论文的最后一部分讨论了我们可能试图解决或减轻这些担忧的方法。我们不知道什么是正确的行动；我们通常会在没有这种道德知识的情况下采取行动。我论文的最后一部分讨论了我们可能试图解决或减轻这些担忧的方法。