Traditional methods for estimating age-at-death of caprines are based on dental and epiphyseal fusion data and known to produce rather wide age intervals. In order to better interpret prenatal to early infantile mortality of sheep in prehistoric assemblages more precise age predictions are needed. We address this issue using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) developed on humerus measurements of unborn and very young sheep of known age housed in modern collections. We then verify the resulting prediction model with the aid of a pregnant ewe and her foetus (Ovis aries) excavated in the Ptolemaic-Roman animal cemetery at Syene (modern Aswan, Egypt). Her condition illustrates that both the mother and her mature foetus must have died during birthing. Subsequently, we apply the model to humeri of very young archaeological sheep (Ovis orientalis/O. aries) unearthed at early Neolithic Aşıklı Höyük (Central Turkey). Both study cases underscore the practicality of our approach whilst illustrating the cultural and historical importance of precise age determinations in foetal, newborn and infantile sheep. Finally, we discuss the possible causes for foetal and neonatal mortality in sheep at Aşıklı Höyük.

估计山羊死亡时的传统方法是基于牙齿和骨epi融合数据，并且已知会产生相当大的年龄间隔。为了更好地解释史前组合中绵羊的产前到早期婴儿死亡率，需要更精确的年龄预测。我们使用广义加性模型（GAM）解决此问题，该模型是对现代馆藏中已知年龄的未出生和非常年轻的绵羊的肱骨测量结果而开发的。然后，我们借助怀孕的母羊和胎儿（Ovis aries）验证得到的预测模型。）在Syene（现代阿斯旺，埃及）的托勒密罗马动物公墓中发掘。她的病情表明，母亲和成年胎儿都必须在分娩时死亡。随后，我们将该模型应用于新石器时代早期AşıklıHöyük（土耳其中部）出土的非常年轻的考古绵羊（Ovis Orientalis / O.aries）的肱骨。这两个研究案例都强调了我们方法的实用性，同时说明了在胎儿，新生和婴儿绵羊中精确确定年龄的文化和历史重要性。最后，我们在AşıklıHöyük讨论了绵羊胎儿和新生儿死亡的可能原因。