I investigate the downward drift of U.S. interest rates from 1984:Q1 to 2019:Q4. For this, I bring the workhorse two-country New Keynesian model to data on the U.S. and an aggregate of its major trading partners using Bayesian techniques. I show that the U.S. natural (or equilibrium) interest rate recovered from the model has fallen more gradually than the long-run U.S. real rate, cushioned by productivity shocks. Since inflation expectations became well-anchored in the 90’s, this implies that the continued interest rate decline is largely explained by the real rate tracking the natural rate downward. Foreign productivity spillovers have had significant effects on the U.S. natural rate and on U.S. output potential. However, foreign shock propagation contributed little to the upswing in U.S. output relative to potential or to sustain inflation close to target both of which are attributed almost entirely to mark-up compression (cost-push shocks) and an accommodative monetary policy in the U.S.

我调查了美国利率从1984：Q1到2019：Q4的下降趋势。为此，我使用贝叶斯技术将辛苦的两个国家的新凯恩斯主义模型应用于美国及其主要贸易伙伴的汇总数据。我表明，在生产率冲击的缓冲下，从模型中回收的美国自然（或均衡）利率比长期美国实际利率下降得更为缓慢。由于通货膨胀预期在20世纪90年代得到了很好的固定，这意味着利率的持续下降在很大程度上是由实际利率追踪自然利率下降所解释的。外国生产力的溢出对美国的自然利率和美国的产出潜力产生了重大影响。但是，外来冲击的传播对美国的崛起贡献不大