Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 °C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.

全球气候预测表明，中东和北非（MENA）的夏季酷暑明显加剧。为了评估区域影响并支持减缓和适应措施，需要从气候缩减研究中获得可靠的信息，而该研究是该地区所缺乏的。在这里，我们通过使用热浪指数和中东和北非地区气候预测综合合集来预测未来的热点。我们的研究结果表明，在本世纪下半叶，将出现史无前例的超和超极端热浪条件。这些事件涉及过高的温度（高达56°C和更高），并且持续时间较长（几周），对人类有潜在的生命危险。到本世纪末，中东和北非地区约有一半的人口（约6亿）可能会遭受每年反复出现的超和超极端热浪的袭击。预计绝大多数暴露人口（> 90％）将生活在城市中心，他们将需要应对这些具有社会破坏性的天气条件。